Our Views

STM Asset Management

Our Views

2/6/2012: Well Monday started off like it did not want to get out of bed this morning. It was news out of Greece that held the markets back again today, granted there was not much other news to spur it in the right direction. I feel that this pattern may continue for a while since we are now winding down earnings season and only have significant news every couple of days instead of everyday like it has been. Resistance at this level should be expected so dont mind the turbulance, but do be afraid if you feel the plane pitch nose down. Sean McClay 251 259 5477 Registered Investment Adviser Daphne, AL

2/3/2012: Another jobs report that beat expectations with a better than expected 243K job growth number as well as a services sector number that was better than expected. The Nasdaq touched an 11 year high and the Dow hit its highest point since May 2008. No news out of Europe today so the day belonged to the jobs number and it helped us close up more than 2% for the week and most of that coming today on the back of better than expected economic numbers. What a great start to the year we have had so far. For a free portfolio review or for assistance with your portfolio give us a call. Sean McClay 251 259 5477 Registered Investment Adviser Daphne, AL

2/1/2012: February started off with a bang, spurred on by an ADP Jobs number that was inline with expectations, the highest reading of US manufacturing since June, and news that China had better than expected growth. All of this coupled with news that Greece may finally reach an agreement with its creditors made sure that the first day of February did not ruin the best January since 1997. Earnings reports out of a majority of companies continue to be above average and if that continues I do not see the market slowing down any time soon. Be cautious as there are still unexpected happenings that could come out of Europe, so make sure to keep a close eye on your portfolio. For assistance in managing your portfolio give me a call. Sean McClay 251 259 5477 Registered Investment Adviser Daphne, AL

1/30/2012: This market is like riding the kiddie roller coaster at your favorite amusement park. Up, Down, Up, Down, only to end up in exactly the same place all over again. No really high hills, no really steep drops but just enough movement to make you a little nauseous. It seems every day its something different out of Greece that really is nothing different, they are working on it but can not really grasp how they are going to pay off their debts. In the US we seem to have a higher percentage of companies beating expectations, but recently some economic numbers have been a little less than desired so therefore we wind up where we started. If you need help seeing the forrest through the trees give us a call.
Sean McClay Registered Investment Adviser 251 259 5477 Daphne, AL

1/27/2012: Good GDP number, good earnings, and M&A activity, you would think the market would be up, but that is not the case. We seem to be wandering around like a lost puppy at the moment.  I mentioned on my earlier post on Wednesday that I felt the market could waiver for a while looking for news to spur it in any direction.  If you are fortunate enough to have a stock that has had a great start to the year don't forget to move your stop up, to lock in profits. For assistance in managing your portfolio give me  a call at 251 259 5477. Sean McClay

1/25/2012: Market closed up today after being down some in the morning. Nasdaq was the big winner on the day because of Apple who had earnings that blew away expectation and made it at current time the largest company by market cap. Expect the market to be a little lost the next couple of days as we figure out if we ran to far to fast. I for one think we could go higher but it is all dependent upon earnings from the companies left to report. For assistance in managing your portfolio give me a call at 251 259 5477. Sean McClay

1/23/2012: Market closed mixed today with all eyes on what will happen with Greece's debt restructuring and also the multitude of earnings reports that are due to come out in the next couple of days. Greece news should not cause significant volatility but if it is negative coupled with some missed earnings estimates could cause the market to slip for a couple of days until better news comes out. For assistance in managing your portfolio contact Sean McClay at 251 259 5477.

1/13/2012: The Europe Road Block Seems to still be in full effect for our stock market at current time. We will continue to ignore the slow growth and decent earnings of US based companies to stay solely concentrated upon Europe and news of downgrades that were discussed and expected as long as 3 months ago. Here is hoping a better than expected earnings season helps us refocus on how well the companies in the US are doing. Sean McClay 251 259 5477

10/24/2011: Dow closed within sight of 12000, after what has been a set it on fire October for the markets, recouping some of the losses of the last quarter. We have seen some good earnings and more recently some not so good earnings. This will truly become a stock pickers market in my opinion. Be cautions of wild swings as the market is still scared, even though October has been great so far. Invest wisley and never be afraid to take profits. Sean McClay 251 259 5477

12/2/2010: News out of China yesterday with above expectation PMI and also news that the US private sector is hiring as well as reduced fears about the PIIGS helped the market move higher. We have had a hard time getting through the 1225 level on the S&P. It seems each time we have pulled back to the 1181 area on the S&P. We will hopefully see a Santa Clause rally, with the renewed consumer confidence.

Questions are always welcome and for assistance in managing your portfolio please email (smcclay@stmassetmanagement.com) or call 251 259 5477.

9/21/2010: Todays economic numbers were good. The FOMC confirmed they still have some bullets in their gun. Even if we pull back, which i expect, we need to hold the 1127 level to make sure as to continue our upward direction. New resistance line should be around 1165 range. Economic numbers are continuing go be positive and M&A activity continues to be steady. Only the government or a really horrible jobs number can derail us now.

Questions are always welcome and for assistance in managing your portfolio please email (smcclay@stmassetmanagement.com) or call 251 259 5477.

9/20/10: We closed above the magical 1131 level on the S&P which has been the top of the trading range since June. Now is the time to see if we continue our rally. Tomorrow and the rest of the week may be choppy as we determine if the trend line break is for real or just a simple head fake. Here is to hoping the statistical ...numbers the rest of the week continue to fuel our fire. Sean McClay 251 259 5477

9/16/2010: The employment number again today was good but not overwhelming one way or another. The market is having problem getting through this level just as it has multiple times before. Market is once again struggling to get above 1130 ceiling. CPI and retail earnings out tomorrow morning 7:30 est. They may be what we need to... move the market higher, assuming they come in better than expected. (251) 259 5477

9/13/2010: Back to the positive side for the year on the S&P. We will need more M&A activity and continued good news on the Jobs front to continue our run. We are at levels we have had trouble getting through previously, so the future remains uncertain. Be careful when investing at these levels. If we do finally pop through the 1031 - 35 level on the S&P we could add another 3 to 4% on top of that.

9/2/2010: 1040 was the flash crash low and has shown to be an area of support in the market. Jon Najarian said it sure felt like a bottom to him http://www.cnbc.com/id/38954924 . I had the same feeling after good news about low numbers of planned layoffs and a good ISM manufacturing number. M&A activity has been good and if Now the Jobs number can suprise in a positive direction the market has the ability to rally into the holidays.

9/2/2010: So we dropped through the 1070 area and quickly went to 1040 on the S&P. August ended and news that the job market is not getting worse came out sending the market back into the previous range of 1070 to 1130. We have a JOBS report coming out tomorrow that will either have us test that 1070 level again or set us up fo...r a positive September. For assistance in managing your investments contact us at 251 259 5477.

8/20/2010: We need to make sure that we hold that 1070 level as the volume has been very light in August so far. Be careful in making any investment at this level as with this market a drop through the floor is very possible. We need corporations that are flush with cash to help move this market higher because we still are not ...producing JOBS and the consumer is beginning to fade.

8/16/2010: Market Up Today but needs to get through 1098.00 (area of great resistance) on the S&P to go higher. If it can break that level it should go up to around 1120 and do so in quick order.

8/11/2010: Today is a day which has become common place in the market recently we take steps forward and then see them erased in a couple of days. Our range has seemed to move up though from the 1110 to 1040 level to 1130 to 1070 level on the down side. It may very well be time to get shopping lists ready for individual stocks or sectors that are severely oversold.

The market has made for some great opportunities both technically and fundamentally, but still requires great caution and a keen eye.

For help in managing your portfolio give us a call at 251 259 5477 or via email at smccaly@stmassetmanagement.com .

6/11/2010: Earnings season was a success. So what went wrong in May? BP PIIGS (BP and Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) We may have dropped to far too fast at this point but the market seem content to with the current range we are in. A low of 1040 to 1110 on the upside. We are cautious and will wait for the market to show us some direction either up or down for us to make our next move.

Investors should be cautious when entering the market.

For assistance in managing your portfolio please contact us via email or by calling (251) 259 5477.

3/10/2010: Earnings season is finally behind us and we look back with fond memories. We had a fantastic February and are off to a great March. I will urge everyone to buy cautiously as we are bound to have a down day or two soon. I will say that may well be the time to pounce on some investments you would like to own. We are poised and ready to go with the portfolios we manage.

It looks as if we will go higher for the near future, but overperformance will come from good management and improved revenue growth and and improved bottom line numbers.

If you would like for us to manage your portfolio please give us a call at (251) 259 5477.

1/20/2010: The beginning of the year has been good for the market but caution surrounds us with earnings season having started several days ago and mixed signals coming from the many S&P 500 companies that have already reported. This is the time for stock pickers to shine. It is time to look at the management of a company because that will what carries us through the next year. Most companies have already cut costs, so now is their time to shine with their abilities to grow top line revenue as well as bottom line earnings as well.

The markets irrational exuberance has passed and now we will value a company for what it is truly worth. It is time to be cautious with portfolios and tighten your belt and be ready to act on a moments notice. It never hurts to take gains and reevaluate your positions.

Earnings season will drive stock prices for the next couple of weeks and we could see the same volatility we have seen since the beginning of the year, for the foreseeable future.

For assistance in managing your portfolio give us a call at (251) 259 5477.

12/14/09:The last month for the S&P has been sideways a little up a little down but no substantial trend created. It looks as if the market is losing steam and will need something to spur it higher. Now very well maybe the time to take some profits, look for other opportunities in the market and do some tax planning for the end of the year.

I do not see any thing that will make much of a difference for the market over the next week or two and will look at repositioning into higher dividend paying multinational companies. Even if the market does stay flat for a while you can capitalize with a good dividend paying stock, ETF or mutual fund.

Outlook for the next couple of weeks through the end of the year is minimal upside is likely at best, unless there is some kind of substantial news that comes out either positive or negative, which could turn the market sharply in either direction.

For assistance in managing your portfolio give us a call at 251 259 5477.

7/31/09: It has been a while since updating the website and I apologize for that. The market arrived at earnings season several weeks ago and many companies are beating estimates. The one main concern that I have for the markets at this time are that those numbers are strictly on cost cutting not on revenue growth. This may be a problem for the market 6 to 9 months down the road. Right now investors should look for good solid companies to own, but as always make sure that your investments are protected with a strategy in place.

Outlook for the next week: It is 1:33 CT on Friday and the market does not look like it is going to have a take profits Friday. It also looks like the market is going to be the best July since 1989 and possibly 1931. Look for Monday to be driven by Berkshire Hathaway as well as some other heavy weights in several industries and that should set the tone for how the week will play out, unless there are many unforeseen bad earnings reports.

For assistance in managing your portfolio give us a call and as always happy hunting.

7/1/09: The market moved slightly up today but is developing nothing but a sideways trend as I had mentioned back on my opinion back on 6/3/09. The market for the last month has not moved anywhere and I do not expect this summer to get much better for the markets. Oil looks to be a little bit toppy and the market is searching for direction as I have said for much of the last several weeks.

Continue to be cautious when investing and be very picky in your stock selection. Make sure you take profits on investments you made 2 to 3 months ago.

Be cautious as we have seemed to enter a roller coaster of a market again where no matter how high or how low the roller coaster takes you it seem to end up back at the same place it was to let you off the ride when it is over. Once again be very picky and invest with caution.

For help investing your money send me an email or give me a call.

Great News Alert: My wife Kristy and I gave birth to our 2nd little girl Moxie Mara McClay on Friday June 26 2009 at 13:55, weighing 7lbs 9 oz and 20 1/4 in long. Momma and baby are at home and doing well. I would like to thank everyone for all their thoughts and prayers and would like to also thank the great staff at Thomas Hospital and Dr. Marshall Shoemaker's office, for the fantastic care they have provided my wife and family.

6/17/09: The market was slightly down today and has followed the trend since Monday. The caution in the market is evident. No one knows exactly what to think because we have had not so good days but it has been with lower volume.

The market is reacting to the news of the day more so than the possibility of optimism of 6 to 12 months from now as it was doing 3 months ago when this rally started. We are officially in a bull market by definition but it seems that we may have a little more of a pull back for investors especially the big guys to be more comfortable with letting the market go higher.

Investors should be cautious when buying stocks. Only buy what you have supreme optimism in. Make sure you know it is a company with a solid footing and great market share with the possibility to gain more. With the likelihood that unemployment will get worse before it gets better, consumers will be cautious about what they buy, which means it will be a while before the markets make a true attempt at getting back to where we started this wild ride.

6/10/09: The market once again was choppy starting the day up to going down intra day on the Dow as much as 120 points. Traders and big market movers are itching to see the market back off the highs reached recently before going higher and it looks as if they may be trying to force the hands of many others.

This is a time all need to be cautious and make sure they are particularly picky in their stock picking if they are indeed buying stocks. I would not be buying at this time until we either resume the current uptrend with several good volume up days or until my portfolio stop out and locked in the recent profits.

Investors should expect this sideways market movement until something extraordinary news wise or earnings wise comes out either in a good or bad way. Be cautious in buying stocks. If buying bonds, look to be in the market for short to medium duration bond investments. Make sure your strategy is in place and you reevaluate all the stocks in your portfolio to make sure they are all still stocks you want to have and hold. Confusion is in front of us as the market can not seem to make up its mind and I do not see that ending before the end of the week and maybe a little longer.

6/9/09: The market once again was choppy and looking for a direction. It reminds me of the book I read to my daughter, Are You My Mother?.  It is about a lost bird who roams around until it finds its mother.

The market seems to be lost at this point and looking for news (its mother). Like I said in one of my earlier posts either better than better news or worse than bad news to find its next direction. It seems like most investors that did not already get in the market are not wanting to get in now and those that are in, are definitely not going to go all in at this point.

The market will continue to look for direction tomorrow and now is the time to pick very few companies who are reporting earnings better than expected to buy or to buy those that revise their earnings upward. Investors should be picky and make sure to have their strategy in place to take profits and stop out losses if too large.

6/8/09: The market was choppy all day long and the market losing almost 1% before recovering near the end of the day on news that up to 9 banks may be able to repay TARP money to the government.

The day started out down because of McDonald's not meeting their sales numbers in the US.

Make sure when buying stocks at this time you look for companies that have not had too much of a run up in the last several weeks. Many stock prices are much higher then the S&P 500 average of 15 x their 2009 EPS and may put some downward pressure on some stocks in the S&P 500, in the near term.

Look for the market to do much of the same tomorrow, and investors should make sure to take profits where available or at least have your stops in place to make sure to capture the gains from the last several months as the market looks for direction much like it did 4 weeks ago before going up the last 3 weeks.

6/5/09: The market was mixed today with the Dow slightly up and the S&P and NASDAQ down for the day. The market was still up for the week about 2%. The market was for the las 3 weeks.

Today showed some slow enthusiasm for the market so I would be cautious on Monday as everything from this week is digested.

Investors should make sure they have their stops in place to protect profits from this run that we have had the last several months.

6/4/09: The market went up today and pierced the ceiling for the Dow which was to turn the market into the positive for the year. We look forward to the unemployment numbers tomorrow to give us a direction that the economy is taking.

If the unemployment number is better than expected we look for the market to climb higher. The market still gives us caution and reminds us to make sure that we have our strategy in place and look to take profits in stocks that have had what we view to be an unsustainable run up.

The market continues to defy gravity and we will see what it brings for us tomorrow.

6/3/09: The market as I mentioned yesterday has hit that ceiling and just can not pierce through. Until the market has a good up day and good volume day while piercing that ceiling, we will most likely stay in the trading range of the last several weeks.

The market had pressure from the ADP numbers that were out this morning showing that our economy shed approximately another 532K jobs last month. It is time for investors to make sure that they have their stop loss limits in place and look to regroup if the market continues to go lower.

The rally as it had 3 weeks ago looks to be losing steam and may very well start trending sideways here at these levels for a while. As I said yesterday the only thing that will change that will be either extremely good news or even worse than expected news.

6/2/09: The market was up just slightly today staying close to break even all day long. The market is looking for support to continue to go higher. The market as I mentioned yesterday is looking to pierce technical ceilings in order to go higher. Volume has dropped a little in the last week but still strong. The market will most likely trade in this most recent range until the time when either very good news or very bad news comes out causing the market to break its current trading range. There is already some near term good news priced into the market and also some long term bad news priced in to the market. This will cause us to trade most likely in this range until better than expected news or worse than expected news breaks this current trend.

The yield on the 10 year T-Note continues it climb higher which could have been predicted by many, and therefore pushes the price on the T-Notes lower. The spreads on T- Notes and Corporate and High Yield bonds were as high or higher then ever noted in history. Most investors that are in T-Notes need to make sure that they are not overly invested in T-Notes and make sure to look for diversification to suit their income needs.

The market seems to be welcoming many investors back and many more seem to be sitting on the sidelines wondering if there will be a pull back to see if they can get back into the market at that time. We know not where the market will lead us tomorrow but, without any surprising news we expect the market to stay in the same range it has had the last couple of weeks, with the market trending slightly up, until it proves to us otherwise.

6/1/09 : The market is up today, following good news in housing and international markets. GM filed for bankruptcy today and makes everyone cautious as if to the taxpayers will ever be able to recover the money that they have invested in GM.

The market has been up 11 out of the last 12 weeks. The bond markets are showing great signs of easing and yield spreads are starting to return to normal, although still not close to where it was 2 years ago.

The market looks to be in a significant upturn that began on March 9, 2009. It shows no signs of slowing. It does have some technical ceilings that it must pierce before going higher but this bounce has seemed to do the impossible. It has proven almost every expert wrong one way or another. We are enjoying this run and making sure that our strategy is in place to make sure to protect profits where applicable.

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